A Flávia e o Alexandre Nodari escreveram posts intrigantes sobre a candidatura Marina Silva. Eles me fizeram refletir bastante, mas não mudaram significativamente o que eu já pensava. Resolvi trazer para cá um comentário que eu fiz lá no mundo-abrigo para que vocês tenham conhecimento da minha opinião sobre esse assunto:
Flávia,
Você tocou em tantos pontos interessantes aqui que eu não sei se vou conseguir comentar todos, e esse assunto Marina rende tanto...
Antes de qualquer coisa, gostaria de saber se, para você, essa mudança de paradigma que representaria a candidatura Marina seria devido à candidatura em si, ao seu discurso e tal, ou a um eventual governo verde?
Bom, Flávia, a mensagem principal que você me passou aqui é que você acha que algumas críticas à candidatura Marina são precipitadas e que seria necessário dar mais tempo ao tempo pra saber qualé a dela. So far...
Quando surgiu esse papo de que Marina sairia do PT rumo ao PV pra se candidatar à presidência, logo me vieram à cabeça dois nomes: Soninha Francine e Ralph Nader. A primeira pelo fato de ter abandonado seu partido de origem e ingressado em outro com posições políticas duvidosas, após ter recebido a promessa de que seria candidata a um cargo majoritário, o que não ocorreria no partido que ela deixou; o segundo por ter sido um candidato com discurso bonitinho, bacaninha e moderninho que acabou servindo à direita, como disse o Maurício aí acima. Têm elementos que a aproximam desses dois personagens - esses que apontei acima - como têm também outros que a diferenciam. O lance dela com o PV é muito diferente do de Soninha com o PPS, pois ela terá metade dos votos do diretório do partido (e além do mais, Marina não é Soninha, vamos combinar) . E, no Brasil, temos segundo turno, o que não acontece nos EUA. Então, mesmo que a candidatura de Marina sirva, à primeira vista, muito mais à direita do que à esquerda, o voto que ela roubaria de Dilma no primeiro turno, voltaria para a petista no segundo (e eu não sei se será de Dilma que ela roubará mais votos.Eu tenho dito e apostado que Heloísa Helena será quem mais perderá votos: parte do eleitorado desiludido, do indignado, do "cansado" e do evangélico). Isso está muito claro pra mim.
Vamos à prática. Se Marina for candidata sem uma aliança surpreendente (sei lá, vai que ela seduz o PMDB, já pensou? Ou se alie ao PSDB e vai ela na cabeça da chapa e Aécio de vice. Convenhamos que essas hipóteses são pra lá de inverossímeis) ela terá 2 minutos diários de tempo de TV, pouco dinheiro e pouca estrutura partidária – embora sua candidatura possa empolgar militantes -, o que significa que não irá para o segundo turno. Somando isso ao fato de que o segundo turno ocorreria de todo modo, entre Serra e um candidato governista, provavelmente Dilma, eu concluo que estamos gastando tempo, energia, tinta e bytes com um assunto que não terá tanta importância prática assim. Aliás, terá, indiretamente, se essa candidatura for o que faltava para estimular Ciro a concorrer à presidência. Aí sim terá importância, só não tenho certeza se isso será bom ou ruim para Lula e o PT.
Do ponto de vista prático, acho que a única importância que ela teria seria essa, mas, obviamente, do ponto de vista simbólico são outros quinhentos, como você e o Alexandre (naquele post que você linkou) bem disseram. O respeito ao meio ambiente e reflexões sobre os modos de produção e consumo (o desenvolvimento sustentável e tudo o mais) entrarão na agenda e deverão constar do programa de todos os candidatos. Mas não acredito que em curto prazo esses assuntos sejam enfrentados, pois acho que os anos Lula abriram portas que levam o Brasil para outra direção: expansão econômica baseada em crescimento do mercado interno, em decorrência do aumento real do salário mínimo, em programas de distribuição de renda e em crédito consignado (tudo isso com não desprezível impacto na diminuição das desigualdades sociais); aumento da importância do petróleo na nossa economia; crescimento das exportações (espero que o próximo governo dê preferência à agricultura familiar em detrimento do agronegócio)...
Bom, pra finalizar esse meu comentário tão grande quanto confuso, a minha torcida é para que essa candidatura Marina sirva para lançar ideias “verdes” que sejam utilizadas por Dilma em seu governo. Mas não acredito em grandes mudanças (de paradigma) enquanto o quadro político-partidário continuar o mesmo. Podemos ter melhoras, ajustes, mas não superação do nosso modo de produção e consumo. Acho que isto é o máximo que a esquerda pode esperar, pelo menos a curto prazo, de herança da candidatura de Marina Silva: alguns tons verdes em um governo vermelho desbotado. Mas isso não é motivo pra muita tristeza: a outra opção é muito pior.
terça-feira, 1 de setembro de 2009
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37 comentários:
Bruno,
Concordo -- acho que -- completamente com suas observações. Acrescentando-se este comentário* que deixei no blog do Raphael, adiro à tese de que estamos gastando bytes à toa com esse assunto.
De fato, se ela tiver alguma importância real no processo político que começa a correr, será a de inclinar Ciro a concorrer à presidência. E, a contar como andam as especulações no Diretório Estadual do PT em SP sobre a candidatura ao Governo, principalmente c/ as declarações recentes** de Vaccarezza, acho que nem isso é certo.
Um abraço,
Flávio.
* http://politikaetc.blogspot.com/2009/08/faca-tudo-mas-faca-o-favor.html
** http://colunistas.ig.com.br/blogdosblogs/2009/09/01/ha-resistencias-ao-palocci-ate-no-pt/
Acho que é isso, Flávio.
Fiquei muito chateado com a saída de Marina do PT, pois ela era um grande quadro do partido, e com o uso que a mídia e a oposição tem feito desse fato. Acho que ela talvez tenha se precipitado e dado um tiro no pé.
Não consigo enxergar nela toda essa esperança de mudança de paradigma ou "um raio de luz na escuridão política" ou "o oxigênio que arejará a campanha de 2010". Nada disso. É uma pessoa respeitável que aderiu a um partido medíocre e terá um papel pra lá de secundário em 2010. Diria que talvez ela seja uma figurante, como Cristovam em 2006.
A importância que ela poderá ter em 2010, na minha opinião, é aquela que eu falei no post: ou estimulando Ciro a concorrer também ou, quem sabe, por causa do seu apoio num segundo turno, tirar o Ministério do meio-ambiente da posição de pária dos ministérios. Nada mais do que isso.
Um abraço
Por mais razões pessoais que eu tenha para abominar Dilma, acredito que não existe alternativa sensata para este país, que não seja a dela. E isso, claro, para continuar um processo que, se não chega a ser o que desejo, já é mais do se podia esperar.
Por isso, vou engolir a sua opção astuta de só abrir os arquivos da ditadura para vítimas da repressão e seus parentes, e não para parentes dos opressores - que na verdade foram igualmente vítimas. E, muita vez, vítimas maiores do que os parentes dos opositores. Mas o bem comum vem primeiro.
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